Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 1of 250
- Sensitivity
- 52.5rank 1
- Breadth
- 7of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 100.0rank 1
- Eigenvector
- 93.0
- Betweenness
- 20.4
- Links
- 26trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 83.4
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Now
- 95
- Over a year
- −3%Steady
- Over three years
- −8%
- Peak
- 12719 Nov 2023
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.34
- Coverage
- 11languages · 55 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (11 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 57% | 91 | −3% | |
| Spanish | 13% | 109 | +7% | |
| German | 9% | 101 | +4% | |
| Russian | 6% | 85 | −12% | |
| Arabic | 4% | 108 | +41% | |
| Indonesian | 3% | 82 | −22% | |
| Thai | 2% | 100 | +47% | |
| Chinese | 2% | 79 | −24% | |
| Ukrainian | 1% | 91 | +21% | |
| Persian | 1% | 106 | +39% | |
| Malay | 1% | 96 | +18% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
Liberia
Sri Lanka
Nigeria
Zambia
Ghana
Philippines
South Africa
Ethiopia
Kenya
Tanzania
Uganda
Nepal
100
41
35
34
24
20
18
17
15
15
14
11
The 12 highest of 55 nations with a reading.
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 95 | −0% | −5% | −9% | |
| Europe | Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in German | 97 | −10% | +4% | −10% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in Chinese, Indonesian, Thai, Malay | 88 | +4% | −16% | −24% | |
| South Asia | Google in 3 countries | 71 | −13% | −26% | −41% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic | 126 | +84% | −8% | +7% | |
| Africa | Google in 5 countries | 74 | +7% | −16% | −48% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 6 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish | 96 | +10% | −14% | +3% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian | 65 | −26% | −32% | −47% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 95 | +15% | +6% | −21% | ||
| Australia | 102 | −23% | +18% | +34% | ||
| Brazil | 71 | +8% | −36% | −34% | ||
| Canada | 97 | −20% | −4% | +9% | ||
| France | 83 | −16% | −10% | −24% | ||
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 91 | −9% | −8% | −17% | |
| India | 77 | −22% | −2% | −35% | ||
| Indonesia | Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian | 82 | +2% | −19% | −34% | |
| Italy | 76 | +19% | −34% | −37% | ||
| Japan | 102 | +71% | −11% | −9% | ||
| South Korea | 85 | +69% | −45% | −8% | ||
| Mexico | 89 | +31% | −47% | +10% | ||
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 85 | −10% | −12% | −32% | |
| South Africa | 79 | −8% | −24% | −15% | ||
| Türkiye | 144 | +178% | −27% | +71% | ||
| United Kingdom | 122 | +1% | +73% | +43% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 96 | +4% | −6% | −10% |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very high | A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05 | Geopolitical and security |
| 4 · High | A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02 | Economic and trade |
| 4 · High | Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04 | Geopolitical and security |
| 4 · High | A major disaster disables the national economic core S07 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 4 · High | A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10 | Health |
| 4 · High | A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 4 · High | A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 3 · Moderate | A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03 | Geopolitical and security |
| 3 · Moderate | Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 3 · Moderate | A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 3 · Moderate | A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 3 · Moderate | A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 3 · Moderate | A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 3 · Moderate | Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗ | Health |
| 3 · Moderate | A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗ | Health |
| 2 · Low | Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01 | Economic and trade |
| 2 · Low | An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 2 · Low | A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 2 · Low | Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 2 · Low | AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · High | Civil service capability & pay | State capacity & governance | 2 |
| 4 · High | Rule of law & judicial independence | State capacity & governance | 3 |
| 4 · High | Executive overreach & emergency powers | State capacity & governance | 4 |
| 4 · High | Corruption & state capture | State capacity & governance | 5 |
| 4 · High | Public procurement capability | State capacity & governance | 6 |
| 4 · High | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | State capacity & governance | 8 |
| 4 · High | Local & city government capacity | State capacity & governance | 11 |
| 4 · High | Social protection coverage gaps | State capacity & governance | 13 |
| 4 · High | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | State capacity & governance | 14 |
| 4 · High | Polarisation & populism | State capacity & governance | 15 |
| 4 · High | Fiscal rules & budget credibility | State capacity & governance | 17 |
| 4 · High | Civil unrest & protest mobilisation | State capacity & governance | 25 |
| 4 · High | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | State capacity & governance | 27 |
| 4 · High | Citizen participation & deliberative democracy | State capacity & governance | 60 |
| 3 · Moderate | Declining institutional trust | Information & trust | 7 |
| 3 · Moderate | Public communication in crisis | Information & trust | 10 |
| 3 · Moderate | Sovereign debt & interest burden | Money & debt | 12 |
| 3 · Moderate | Diplomatic capacity under strain | Diplomacy & influence | 16 |
| 3 · Moderate | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | State capacity & governance | 20 |
| 3 · Moderate | Official statistics & data capacity | State capacity & governance | 21 |
| 3 · Moderate | Decline of independent journalism | Information & trust | 29 |
| 3 · Moderate | Digital public infrastructure | State capacity & governance | 31 |
| 3 · Moderate | Adaptive regulation | State capacity & governance | 33 |
| 3 · Moderate | Data protection & digital rights | State capacity & governance | 44 |
| 3 · Moderate | Central bank independence under pressure | State capacity & governance | 64 |
| 3 · Moderate | Asylum & migration system strain | State capacity & governance | 115 |