Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 5of 250
- Sensitivity
- 23.3rank 15
- Breadth
- 2of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 86.6rank 5
- Eigenvector
- 94.7
- Betweenness
- 38.5
- Links
- 27trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 60.9
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Now
- 88
- Over a year
- −5%Steady
- Over three years
- −21%
- Peak
- 1459 Feb 2025
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.58
- Coverage
- 27languages · 68 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (27 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 52% | 82 | −19% | |
| Russian | 9% | 103 | +11% | |
| Spanish | 7% | 85 | −12% | |
| German | 5% | 97 | −12% | |
| Chinese | 3% | 89 | −12% | |
| French | 3% | 107 | +11% | |
| Japanese | 2% | 104 | +8% | |
| Portuguese | 2% | 110 | +23% | |
| Indonesian | 2% | 100 | −5% | |
| Arabic | 2% | 88 | −10% | |
| Persian | 2% | 92 | −7% | |
| Italian | 1% | 104 | +8% | |
| Polish | 1% | 117 | +38% | |
| Thai | 1% | 60 | −55% | |
| Ukrainian | 1% | 110 | +2% | |
| Turkish | 1% | 130 | +18% | |
| Korean | 1% | 106 | −4% | |
| Hindi | 1% | 112 | +4% | |
| Vietnamese | 1% | 105 | +9% | |
| Dutch | 1% | 90 | −5% | |
| Swedish | 1% | 121 | +32% | |
| Bengali | 0% | 63 | −43% | |
| Hebrew | 0% | 112 | +17% | |
| Malay | 0% | 97 | −14% | |
| Urdu | 0% | 21 | −69% | |
| Tamil | 0% | 135 | +83% | |
| Swahili | 0% | 29 | −66% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
Zambia
Uganda
Philippines
Kenya
Singapore
Ghana
South Africa
Jamaica
Côte d'Ivoire
Nigeria
Switzerland
China
100
90
88
82
78
73
71
70
67
60
59
58
The 12 highest of 68 nations with a reading.
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 89 | +10% | −9% | −15% | |
| Europe | Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch, Swedish | 99 | +3% | −7% | +5% | |
| China | Google in 1 country | 75 | +3% | −25% | −39% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 11 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Thai, Malay | 98 | +16% | −13% | +1% | |
| South Asia | Google in 4 countries + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali, Tamil, Urdu | 94 | +15% | −7% | −27% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Google in 5 countries + Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew | 101 | +12% | −5% | +7% | |
| Africa | Google in 6 countries + Wikipedia in Swahili | 57 | −8% | −30% | −50% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 6 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese | 101 | +9% | +2% | −12% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian | 87 | +15% | −0% | −37% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 105 | +4% | −11% | +6% | ||
| Australia | 96 | +48% | −10% | −8% | ||
| Brazil | Google + Wikipedia in Portuguese | 118 | +31% | +22% | +13% | |
| Canada | 95 | +22% | −13% | −5% | ||
| China | 75 | +3% | −25% | −39% | ||
| France | Google + Wikipedia in French | 110 | +20% | +2% | +17% | |
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 94 | +1% | −15% | −5% | |
| India | Google + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali, Tamil | 109 | +18% | +8% | −20% | |
| Indonesia | Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian | 98 | +24% | −14% | −14% | |
| Italy | Google + Wikipedia in Italian | 95 | −11% | −10% | −2% | |
| Japan | Google + Wikipedia in Japanese | 110 | +5% | +18% | +8% | |
| South Korea | Google + Wikipedia in Korean | 118 | +16% | +20% | +24% | |
| Mexico | 90 | +9% | −21% | −24% | ||
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 103 | +8% | +11% | −9% | |
| Saudi Arabia | 84 | +13% | −22% | −25% | ||
| South Africa | 139 | +54% | +43% | +68% | ||
| Türkiye | Google + Wikipedia in Turkish | 120 | +17% | −0% | +87% | |
| United Kingdom | 74 | +3% | −30% | −36% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 89 | +11% | −6% | −16% |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 4 · High | A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05 | Geopolitical and security |
| 4 · High | A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 3 · Moderate | A major disaster disables the national economic core S07 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 3 · Moderate | A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 3 · Moderate | A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 2 · Low | A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02 | Economic and trade |
| 2 · Low | A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01 | Economic and trade |
| 1 · Very low | Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10 | Health |
| 1 · Very low | A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 1 · Very low | Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗ | Health |
| 1 · Very low | A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗ | Health |
| 0 · Not related | A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03 | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04 | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very high | Rule of law & judicial independence | State capacity & governance | 3 |
| 5 · Very high | Executive overreach & emergency powers | State capacity & governance | 4 |
| 5 · Very high | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | State capacity & governance | 8 |
| 5 · Very high | Polarisation & populism | State capacity & governance | 15 |
| 4 · High | State capacity & delivery | State capacity & governance | 1 |
| 4 · High | Civil service capability & pay | State capacity & governance | 2 |
| 4 · High | Sovereign debt & interest burden | Money & debt | 12 |
| 4 · High | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | State capacity & governance | 14 |
| 4 · High | Fiscal rules & budget credibility | State capacity & governance | 17 |
| 4 · High | Civil unrest & protest mobilisation | State capacity & governance | 25 |
| 4 · High | Citizen participation & deliberative democracy | State capacity & governance | 60 |
| 3 · Moderate | Public procurement capability | State capacity & governance | 6 |
| 3 · Moderate | Declining institutional trust | Information & trust | 7 |
| 3 · Moderate | Local & city government capacity | State capacity & governance | 11 |
| 3 · Moderate | Social protection coverage gaps | State capacity & governance | 13 |
| 3 · Moderate | Diplomatic capacity under strain | Diplomacy & influence | 16 |
| 3 · Moderate | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | State capacity & governance | 20 |
| 3 · Moderate | Official statistics & data capacity | State capacity & governance | 21 |
| 3 · Moderate | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | State capacity & governance | 27 |
| 3 · Moderate | Decline of independent journalism | Information & trust | 29 |
| 3 · Moderate | Election integrity & interference | Information & trust | 57 |
| 3 · Moderate | Central bank independence under pressure | State capacity & governance | 64 |
| 3 · Moderate | Global South coalitions | Diplomacy & influence | 72 |
| 3 · Moderate | Weakening multilateral institutions | Diplomacy & influence | 77 |
| 3 · Moderate | Asylum & migration system strain | State capacity & governance | 115 |
| 3 · Moderate | Organised crime & illicit economies | Conflict & security | 182 |
| 3 · Moderate | State fragility & intrastate violence | Conflict & security | 183 |