Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 115of 250
- Sensitivity
- 7.5rank 162
- Breadth
- 1of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 32.1rank 140
- Eigenvector
- 35.8
- Betweenness
- 12.9
- Links
- 12trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 21.5
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Now
- 84
- Over a year
- −22%Easing
- Over three years
- −31%
- Peak
- 2174 Aug 2024
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.47
- Coverage
- 15languages · 49 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (15 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 56% | 82 | −27% | |
| Arabic | 8% | 95 | −5% | |
| Russian | 7% | 111 | −6% | |
| Chinese | 6% | 108 | +4% | |
| French | 6% | 82 | +1% | |
| German | 5% | 70 | +3% | |
| Spanish | 4% | 92 | +22% | |
| Italian | 2% | 123 | +61% | |
| Japanese | 2% | 107 | −7% | |
| Portuguese | 1% | 76 | −24% | |
| Persian | 1% | 97 | +19% | |
| Dutch | 1% | 87 | −29% | |
| Indonesian | 1% | 88 | +12% | |
| Ukrainian | 0% | 99 | +17% | |
| Hebrew | 0% | 95 | −11% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
Ireland
United Kingdom
Cyprus
Australia
Uganda
Ethiopia
Canada
South Africa
Netherlands
United States
Kenya
Ghana
100
77
36
20
17
16
14
14
13
13
12
11
The 12 highest of 49 nations with a reading.
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 71 | +4% | −26% | −39% | |
| Europe | Google in 7 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Dutch | 102 | +32% | −3% | −14% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Indonesian | 113 | +51% | −13% | +13% | |
| South Asia | Google in 1 country | 148 | +12% | +179% | +23% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Hebrew | 95 | −9% | −1% | +23% | |
| Africa | Google in 1 country | 144 | −2% | +60% | +9% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese | 86 | +12% | +1% | −25% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian | 109 | +18% | −3% | +16% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 70 | +26% | −35% | −50% | ||
| Brazil | Wikipedia in Portuguese | 76 | −2% | −24% | −37% | |
| Canada | 66 | +31% | −50% | −29% | ||
| France | Google + Wikipedia in French | 87 | +25% | −12% | −32% | |
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 71 | +17% | −12% | −44% | |
| India | 148 | +12% | +179% | +23% | ||
| Indonesia | Wikipedia in Indonesian | 88 | +4% | +12% | −13% | |
| Italy | Google + Wikipedia in Italian | 134 | +37% | +122% | +5% | |
| Japan | Google + Wikipedia in Japanese | 130 | +65% | −7% | +35% | |
| South Korea | 112 | +59% | −36% | +30% | ||
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 111 | +16% | −6% | +34% | |
| South Africa | 144 | −2% | +60% | +9% | ||
| United Kingdom | 69 | +26% | −76% | −36% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 70 | +3% | −20% | −44% |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 4 · High | A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 3 · Moderate | A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03 | Geopolitical and security |
| 1 · Very low | Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | A major disaster disables the national economic core S07 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01 | Economic and trade |
| 0 · Not related | A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02 | Economic and trade |
| 0 · Not related | Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04 | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05 | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10 | Health |
| 0 · Not related | A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 0 · Not related | A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 0 · Not related | A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗ | Health |
| 0 · Not related | A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗ | Health |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 · Moderate | State capacity & delivery | State capacity & governance | 1 |
| 3 · Moderate | Rule of law & judicial independence | State capacity & governance | 3 |
| 3 · Moderate | Executive overreach & emergency powers | State capacity & governance | 4 |
| 3 · Moderate | Corruption & state capture | State capacity & governance | 5 |
| 3 · Moderate | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | State capacity & governance | 8 |
| 3 · Moderate | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | State capacity & governance | 14 |
| 3 · Moderate | Polarisation & populism | State capacity & governance | 15 |
| 3 · Moderate | Diplomatic capacity under strain | Diplomacy & influence | 16 |
| 3 · Moderate | Civil unrest & protest mobilisation | State capacity & governance | 25 |
| 3 · Moderate | Middle-power diplomatic leverage | Diplomacy & influence | 36 |
| 3 · Moderate | Nuclear arsenal growth & proliferation | Conflict & security | 126 |
| 3 · Moderate | Migrant integration demands | People, health & work | 205 |