Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 17of 250
- Sensitivity
- 20.8rank 23
- Breadth
- 2of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 72.5rank 11
- Eigenvector
- 74.0
- Betweenness
- 20.0
- Links
- 21trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 49.0
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Now
- 97
- Over a year
- +10%Steady
- Over three years
- +2%
- Peak
- 2002 Mar 2025
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.28
- Coverage
- 4languages · 58 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (4 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| German | 46% | 53 | +5% | |
| English | 42% | 94 | +2% | |
| Italian | 8% | 98 | +75% | |
| French | 3% | 161 | +61% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
Singapore
United States
Nigeria
Canada
United Kingdom
China
South Korea
Ghana
Nepal
Netherlands
Australia
Kenya
100
93
67
60
60
56
56
48
46
42
40
40
The 12 highest of 58 nations with a reading.
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 89 | −8% | +2% | −11% | |
| Europe | Google in 4 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian | 86 | −25% | +55% | −35% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 1 country | 128 | −16% | +33% | +263% | |
| South Asia | Google in 1 country | 81 | −11% | +16% | −14% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 128 | −16% | +33% | +263% | ||
| Canada | 101 | −14% | +24% | +47% | ||
| France | Google + Wikipedia in French | 123 | −16% | +29% | +132% | |
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 49 | +5% | +39% | −74% | |
| India | 81 | −11% | +16% | −14% | ||
| Italy | Google + Wikipedia in Italian | 113 | −41% | +182% | −10% | |
| United Kingdom | 116 | −8% | +57% | +64% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 86 | −7% | −2% | −20% |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very high | A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02 | Economic and trade |
| 4 · High | A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 3 · Moderate | An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 2 · Low | A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05 | Geopolitical and security |
| 2 · Low | A major disaster disables the national economic core S07 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 2 · Low | Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03 | Geopolitical and security |
| 1 · Very low | Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04 | Geopolitical and security |
| 1 · Very low | Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10 | Health |
| 1 · Very low | A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 1 · Very low | A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 1 · Very low | Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗ | Health |
| 0 · Not related | Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01 | Economic and trade |
| 0 · Not related | A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 0 · Not related | A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗ | Health |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very high | Sovereign debt & interest burden | Money & debt | 12 |
| 5 · Very high | Central bank independence under pressure | State capacity & governance | 64 |
| 4 · High | State capacity & delivery | State capacity & governance | 1 |
| 4 · High | Rule of law & judicial independence | State capacity & governance | 3 |
| 4 · High | Executive overreach & emergency powers | State capacity & governance | 4 |
| 4 · High | Corruption & state capture | State capacity & governance | 5 |
| 4 · High | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | State capacity & governance | 8 |
| 4 · High | Polarisation & populism | State capacity & governance | 15 |
| 4 · High | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | State capacity & governance | 20 |
| 4 · High | Official statistics & data capacity | State capacity & governance | 21 |
| 4 · High | Slow growth & fiscal space | Money & debt | 22 |
| 4 · High | Civil unrest & protest mobilisation | State capacity & governance | 25 |
| 3 · Moderate | Civil service capability & pay | State capacity & governance | 2 |
| 3 · Moderate | Social protection coverage gaps | State capacity & governance | 13 |
| 3 · Moderate | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | State capacity & governance | 14 |
| 3 · Moderate | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | State capacity & governance | 27 |
| 3 · Moderate | Tax base erosion & coordination | Money & debt | 41 |
| 3 · Moderate | Domestic capital market deepening | Money & debt | 55 |
| 3 · Moderate | Citizen participation & deliberative democracy | State capacity & governance | 60 |
| 3 · Moderate | Non-bank finance growth | Money & debt | 82 |
| 3 · Moderate | Sovereign creditor fragmentation | Money & debt | 88 |