Trend · rank 69 of 250

AI safety & governance

Requirements for evaluation, verification and liability for advanced AI are being set nationally and internationally, with the strength of enforceable scrutiny determining whether states can deploy powerful systems at acceptable risk.

Governance & IntegrityState capacity & governanceaiinstitutionsdata governance

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
69of 250
Sensitivity
11.7rank 79
Breadth
2of 20 scenarios High or above
PageRank
35.8rank 117
Eigenvector
14.5
Betweenness
31.4
Links
12trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
27.4

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now
157
Over a year
+4%Steady
Over three years
+251%
Peak
23413 Sept 2026
Sources
Bothagreement 0.61
Coverage
6languages · 54 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (6 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English88%180+68%
French4%207+92%
Spanish4%144+32%
Arabic2%97−26%
Persian1%72−8%
Portuguese1%168+19%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

South Korea

Singapore

China

Netherlands

United States

Australia

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

Israel

Taiwan

Canada

Switzerland

100

97

56

50

44

30

28

28

27

27

26

26

The 12 highest of 54 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English156−15%+17%+236%
EuropeGoogle in 9 countries + Wikipedia in French173−16%+111%+408%
ChinaGoogle in 1 country236−13%+314%+598%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 11 countries166−48%+202%+1068%
South AsiaGoogle in 3 countries159−39%+86%+757%
Gulf and Middle EastWikipedia in Persian, Arabic87−20%−20%−13%
AfricaGoogle in 3 countries153−29%+35%+2416%
Latin America and CaribbeanGoogle in 1 country + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese160−33%+128%+427%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
AustraliaGoogle129−59%+118%+409%
BrazilGoogle + Wikipedia in Portuguese168−36%+108%+769%
CanadaGoogle144−48%+122%+501%
ChinaGoogle236−13%+314%+598%
FranceGoogle + Wikipedia in French153−27%+92%+420%
GermanyGoogle165−48%+194%+761%
IndiaGoogle145−44%+63%+530%
IndonesiaGoogle208−25%+322%+2363%
ItalyGoogle133−51%+114%+505%
JapanGoogle130−70%+244%+742%
South KoreaGoogle150−56%+200%+721%
South AfricaGoogle162−22%+63%+1460%
United KingdomGoogle193−15%+166%+351%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English154−13%+3%+239%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5 · Very highAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
5 · Very highAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very lowA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
1 · Very lowA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
1 · Very lowA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very lowA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
0 · Not relatedA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
5 · Very highPublic-sector AI adoptionState capacity & governance75
4 · HighAdaptive regulationState capacity & governance33
3 · ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerState capacity & governance8
3 · ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityState capacity & governance21
3 · ModerateData protection & digital rightsState capacity & governance44
3 · ModerateAI & knowledge-work automationPeople, health & work53
3 · ModerateAutomated AI researchAI, compute & quantum83
3 · ModerateGeneral-purpose AI capabilityAI, compute & quantum95
3 · ModerateAlgorithmic accountability & biasState capacity & governance135
3 · ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionAI, compute & quantum149
3 · ModerateFrontier model concentrationAI, compute & quantum168
3 · ModerateAI inference efficiencyAI, compute & quantum170