Trend · rank 95 of 250

General-purpose AI capability

AI systems are improving across language, reasoning and autonomous task execution, widening the range of work nations can automate and raising the value of reliable performance and domestic technical expertise.

Critical TechnologyAI, compute & quantumaicomputework skills

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass, where it was Artificial intelligence. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
95of 250
Sensitivity
12.5rank 64
Breadth
2of 20 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank
40.9rank 82
Eigenvector
1.7
Betweenness
9.4
Links
13trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
23.9

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now
166
Over a year
+41%Surging
Over three years
+114%
Peak
2106 Sept 2026
Sources
Bothagreement 0.85
Coverage
14languages · 55 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (14 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English70%239+123%
French6%133+24%
Japanese5%118+17%
Chinese5%131+35%
Russian4%142+23%
Korean2%174+109%
Italian2%151+58%
Spanish2%154+37%
Portuguese1%158+39%
Hebrew1%144+19%
Persian0%133+14%
Turkish0%120+26%
Ukrainian0%196+45%
Hindi0%170+21%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

Singapore

China

South Korea

Netherlands

United States

Australia

India

United Arab Emirates

Canada

Israel

Taiwan

United Kingdom

100

78

72

33

33

26

25

25

24

22

22

21

The 12 highest of 55 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English191+7%+62%+208%
EuropeGoogle in 8 countries + Wikipedia in French, Italian142−22%+58%+119%
ChinaGoogle in 1 country156+1%+50%+132%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 10 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean150−20%+74%+143%
South AsiaGoogle in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Hindi144+6%+17%+231%
Gulf and Middle EastGoogle in 5 countries + Wikipedia in Persian, Turkish, Hebrew123−16%+27%+146%
AfricaGoogle in 4 countries126−18%+46%+150%
Latin America and CaribbeanGoogle in 5 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese166−12%+84%+253%
Russia and EurasiaWikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian153+22%+28%+266%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
ArgentinaGoogle159−43%+221%+671%
AustraliaGoogle122−49%+40%+105%
BrazilGoogle + Wikipedia in Portuguese167+5%+64%+211%
CanadaGoogle136−26%+31%+106%
ChinaGoogle156+1%+50%+132%
FranceGoogle + Wikipedia in French128−33%+44%+116%
GermanyGoogle159−41%+108%+241%
IndiaGoogle + Wikipedia in Hindi140+4%+12%+201%
IndonesiaGoogle206−25%+159%+448%
ItalyGoogle + Wikipedia in Italian140−19%+63%+96%
JapanGoogle + Wikipedia in Japanese130−50%+81%+119%
South KoreaGoogle + Wikipedia in Korean179−4%+127%+199%
MexicoGoogle178−36%+151%+524%
RussiaWikipedia in Russian142+22%+23%+200%
Saudi ArabiaGoogle121−28%+36%+204%
South AfricaGoogle135−17%+47%+214%
TürkiyeGoogle + Wikipedia in Turkish124−20%+56%+135%
United KingdomGoogle183+7%+99%+174%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English192+8%+57%+215%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6 · CriticalAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
5 · Very highAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
2 · LowHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
2 · LowA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
0 · Not relatedA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
5 · Very highAutomated AI researchAI, compute & quantum83
5 · Very highGeneral-purpose & humanoid roboticsAI, compute & quantum225
4 · HighAI & knowledge-work automationPeople, health & work53
4 · HighCompute scaling & AI infrastructureAI, compute & quantum133
4 · HighOpen-weight AI diffusionAI, compute & quantum149
4 · HighFrontier model concentrationAI, compute & quantum168
4 · HighAI inference efficiencyAI, compute & quantum170
3 · ModerateCapital concentration in AIAI, compute & quantum67
3 · ModerateAI safety & governanceState capacity & governance69
3 · ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyAI, compute & quantum111
3 · ModerateLifelong learning & digital reskillingPeople, health & work132
3 · ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsAI, compute & quantum165
3 · ModerateGraduate skill mismatchPeople, health & work178