Trend · rank 75 of 250

Public-sector AI adoption

Governments are building AI into casework, services and decisions, which raises administrative capacity where procurement, staff competence and review of automated decisions keep pace and weakens legitimacy where they do not.

Governance & IntegrityState capacity & governanceaiinstitutionsdata governance

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
75of 250
Sensitivity
7.5rank 161
Breadth
0of 20 scenarios High or above
PageRank
41.3rank 79
Eigenvector
29.6
Betweenness
28.6
Links
13trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
26.8

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now
144
Over a year
−5%Steady
Over three years
+144%
Peak
27028 Sept 2025
Sources
Bothagreement 0.26
Coverage
5languages · 50 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (5 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English78%105−4%
Russian12%105−2%
Arabic6%80−66%
Spanish3%128+16%
Portuguese1%107−6%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

Singapore

South Korea

United States

Australia

Netherlands

Canada

United Arab Emirates

Taiwan

United Kingdom

India

Japan

New Zealand

100

96

40

35

34

27

26

25

24

23

23

23

The 12 highest of 50 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English117−19%−16%+115%
EuropeGoogle in 4 countries156−31%+159%+300%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 5 countries171−33%+157%+342%
South AsiaGoogle in 2 countries183−30%+83%+796%
Gulf and Middle EastGoogle in 1 country + Wikipedia in Arabic71+20%−62%−40%
AfricaGoogle in 1 country105−52%−7%0%
Latin America and CaribbeanGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese129−29%+55%+157%
Russia and EurasiaGoogle in 1 country + Wikipedia in Russian144+21%+158%+12%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
AustraliaGoogle162−40%+114%+453%
BrazilGoogle + Wikipedia in Portuguese124−35%+72%+144%
CanadaGoogle148−34%+60%+330%
GermanyGoogle195−42%+567%+1931%
IndiaGoogle167−33%+65%+534%
IndonesiaGoogle207−17%+401%+469%
ItalyGoogle96−30%−7%+13%
JapanGoogle179−56%+702%+1074%
MexicoGoogle136−32%+56%+620%
RussiaWikipedia in Russian105+7%−2%+9%
South AfricaGoogle105−52%−7%0%
TürkiyeGoogle62+46%−55%−57%
United KingdomGoogle207+1%+144%+515%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English114−19%−26%+115%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3 · ModerateAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
3 · ModerateA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very lowA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very lowA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
1 · Very lowAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
5 · Very highAI safety & governanceState capacity & governance69
4 · HighOfficial statistics & data capacityState capacity & governance21
4 · HighDigital public infrastructureState capacity & governance31
4 · HighAdaptive regulationState capacity & governance33
4 · HighData protection & digital rightsState capacity & governance44
4 · HighAlgorithmic accountability & biasState capacity & governance135
3 · ModerateCivil service capability & payState capacity & governance2
3 · ModeratePublic procurement capabilityState capacity & governance6
3 · ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerState capacity & governance8
3 · ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipState capacity & governance20
3 · ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracyState capacity & governance60
3 · ModerateDigital language representation gapsInformation & trust193
3 · ModerateBiometric identificationState capacity & governance213