Trend · rank 121 of 250

Digital sovereignty & data localisation

Dependence on foreign providers for cloud, models, compute and standards is prompting localisation rules and investment that bring data and computing under national jurisdiction, at a cost in scale, interoperability and conflicting legal obligations.

Critical TechnologyAI, compute & quantumdata governancegeoeconomicscompute

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
121of 250
Sensitivity
10.8rank 83
Breadth
0of 20 scenarios High or above
PageRank
24.0rank 191
Eigenvector
2.3
Betweenness
24.5
Links
7trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
20.6

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now
188
Over a year
+55%Surging
Over three years
+255%
Peak
23828 Jun 2026
Sources
Bothagreement 0.90
Coverage
3languages · 56 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (3 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English54%247+200%
German31%149+29%
French15%126+27%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

Singapore

South Korea

China

New Zealand

Netherlands

Australia

United Arab Emirates

United States

Canada

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Germany

100

87

64

55

45

41

35

35

32

29

29

28

The 12 highest of 56 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English211−4%+108%+356%
EuropeGoogle in 3 countries + Wikipedia in German, French155−28%+48%+268%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 4 countries181−16%+46%+181%
South AsiaGoogle in 1 country129−42%+25%+171%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
AustraliaGoogle145−37%+30%+168%
CanadaGoogle194−27%+78%+1163%
FranceGoogle + Wikipedia in French126−39%+35%+98%
GermanyGoogle + Wikipedia in German149−33%+31%+343%
IndiaGoogle129−42%+25%+171%
IndonesiaGoogle159−26%+147%+55%
South KoreaGoogle169−34%−37%0%
United KingdomGoogle240−12%+134%+2029%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English208−5%+101%+328%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3 · ModerateA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
2 · LowCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
2 · LowHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
2 · LowA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
1 · Very lowAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very lowA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very lowA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
1 · Very lowA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
0 · Not relatedA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
3 · ModerateData protection & digital rightsState capacity & governance44
3 · ModerateTechnical standards competitionDiplomacy & influence50
3 · ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyAI, compute & quantum111
3 · ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTrade, industry & supply chains120
3 · ModerateCloud & edge computingAI, compute & quantum124
3 · ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionAI, compute & quantum149
3 · ModerateBiometric identificationState capacity & governance213