GINC Trends
Design System
Trend · rank 231 of 250

Post-quantum cryptography transition

Replacing the encryption that protects finance, government and infrastructure before quantum computers can break it is a decade-long migration that depends on system inventories, implementation skills and interoperability.

Critical TechnologyAI, compute & quantumcybercomputeinstitutions

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
231of 250
Sensitivity
5.8rank 191
Breadth
1of 20 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank
13.7rank 230
Eigenvector
0.0
Betweenness
0.0
Links
2trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
8.6

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now
124
Over a year
+11%Steady
Over three years
+54%
Peak
15427 Sept 2026
Sources
Bothagreement 0.61
Coverage
10languages · 56 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (10 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English82%125+23%
German5%106−18%
Russian4%120+22%
French3%122+1%
Chinese3%123+15%
Spanish2%173+86%
Polish1%140+49%
Korean0%111−18%
Portuguese0%181+67%
Hebrew0%143+47%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

Singapore

South Korea

Taiwan

China

Vietnam

Malaysia

India

Switzerland

Australia

United Arab Emirates

Japan

Netherlands

100

84

71

62

50

37

33

28

26

26

24

24

The 12 highest of 56 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 1 country + Wikipedia in English154+20%+43%+144%
EuropeGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Polish132−13%+12%+135%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Chinese, Korean160+21%+47%+204%
South AsiaGoogle in 1 country129+12%+16%+51%
Gulf and Middle EastWikipedia in Hebrew143+9%+47%+239%
Latin America and CaribbeanWikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese176−2%+78%+204%
Russia and EurasiaWikipedia in Russian120−14%+22%+84%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
BrazilWikipedia in Portuguese181−10%+67%+205%
FranceWikipedia in French122−22%+1%+87%
GermanyGoogle + Wikipedia in German105−10%−11%+44%
IndiaGoogle129+12%+16%+51%
South KoreaGoogle + Wikipedia in Korean131+15%+1%+122%
RussiaWikipedia in Russian120−14%+22%+84%
United KingdomGoogle195+1%+51%+1403%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English154+20%+43%+144%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6 · CriticalA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very lowA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
0 · Not relatedA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health

Related trends

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
5 · Very highQuantum computingAI, compute & quantum236
3 · ModerateCloud & edge computingAI, compute & quantum124