Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 46of 250
- Sensitivity
- 15.0rank 44
- Breadth
- 1of 20 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
- PageRank
- 48.0rank 51
- Eigenvector
- 9.4
- Betweenness
- 30.5
- Links
- 15trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 32.9
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Now
- 93
- Over a year
- −12%Easing
- Over three years
- −9%
- Peak
- 20817 Dec 2023
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.05
- Coverage
- 19languages · 51 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (19 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 45% | 99 | −9% | |
| Russian | 12% | 125 | +25% | |
| Chinese | 10% | 121 | +38% | |
| Japanese | 6% | 85 | −31% | |
| German | 6% | 103 | +3% | |
| Spanish | 5% | 73 | −31% | |
| French | 4% | 99 | +5% | |
| Polish | 2% | 80 | −19% | |
| Korean | 2% | 66 | −21% | |
| Arabic | 2% | 86 | −22% | |
| Portuguese | 1% | 70 | −37% | |
| Vietnamese | 1% | 102 | −8% | |
| Italian | 1% | 78 | −40% | |
| Thai | 1% | 80 | −46% | |
| Persian | 1% | 135 | +17% | |
| Indonesian | 1% | 78 | +6% | |
| Hebrew | 0% | 79 | −34% | |
| Bengali | 0% | 93 | −47% | |
| Hindi | 0% | 26 | −5% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
India
Singapore
Pakistan
South Korea
Sri Lanka
China
United Arab Emirates
Bangladesh
Kenya
Nepal
Nigeria
United States
100
84
75
51
44
42
42
40
37
33
31
28
The 12 highest of 51 nations with a reading.
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in English | 92 | −33% | −12% | +1% | |
| Europe | Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Polish | 93 | +1% | −10% | −10% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 4 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Thai | 99 | −7% | 0% | −5% | |
| South Asia | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali | 71 | −2% | −13% | −55% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Hebrew | 100 | +3% | −12% | +7% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese | 86 | −3% | −20% | −18% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Wikipedia in Russian | 125 | +32% | +25% | +27% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Google + Wikipedia in Portuguese | 85 | +7% | −22% | −7% | |
| France | Wikipedia in French | 99 | +19% | +5% | −17% | |
| Germany | Wikipedia in German | 103 | +10% | +3% | +14% | |
| India | Google + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali | 71 | −2% | −13% | −55% | |
| Indonesia | Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian | 90 | −45% | +34% | +3% | |
| Italy | Wikipedia in Italian | 78 | −12% | −40% | −28% | |
| Japan | Google + Wikipedia in Japanese | 98 | −11% | −8% | −19% | |
| South Korea | Google + Wikipedia in Korean | 73 | −3% | −30% | −27% | |
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 125 | +32% | +25% | +27% | |
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 92 | −33% | −12% | +1% |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 6 · Critical | A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02 | Economic and trade |
| 3 · Moderate | A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 2 · Low | Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01 | Economic and trade |
| 2 · Low | A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 2 · Low | A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 1 · Very low | A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03 | Geopolitical and security |
| 1 · Very low | Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | A major disaster disables the national economic core S07 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04 | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05 | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10 | Health |
| 0 · Not related | A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 0 · Not related | Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗ | Health |
| 0 · Not related | A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗ | Health |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · High | Dollar dependence & payment fragmentation | Money & debt | 45 |
| 4 · High | Domestic capital market deepening | Money & debt | 55 |
| 4 · High | Sovereign creditor fragmentation | Money & debt | 88 |
| 4 · High | Stretched asset valuations | Money & debt | 157 |
| 3 · Moderate | Sovereign debt & interest burden | Money & debt | 12 |
| 3 · Moderate | Slow growth & fiscal space | Money & debt | 22 |
| 3 · Moderate | Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity | Trade, industry & supply chains | 23 |
| 3 · Moderate | Concessional finance scarcity | Money & debt | 32 |
| 3 · Moderate | Tax base erosion & coordination | Money & debt | 41 |
| 3 · Moderate | Financial market infrastructure resilience | Money & debt | 73 |
| 3 · Moderate | Non-bank finance growth | Money & debt | 82 |
| 3 · Moderate | Bank funding & deposit mobility | Money & debt | 101 |
| 3 · Moderate | Insurance retreat & insurability | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 153 |
| 3 · Moderate | Trade finance & correspondent banking gaps | Money & debt | 200 |
| 3 · Moderate | Commercial property repricing | Money & debt | 217 |